World Ups and Downs, 5/11-5/17

A short pause in our platform programming to return to a hopefully weekly feature, World Ups and Downs. This is a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week, seeing which foreign countries managed to worsen or better the lives of their people. For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
India	The government of India not only pulled off the logistical challenge of the world's largest election, but its people voted for sanity. The Marxists were slapped down, and a strong blow was landed against the bigoted BJP. Congress Party, in many ways the best of bad options, headed for a surprisingly comfortable victory. While the idea of a political dynasty on its fourth generation of adoration fits poorly with democratic principles, at least the voters of India spoke loudly in favor of a smart and sane approach to domestic and foreign policy.
Zambia	Given American problems, it's easy to forget how precipitous the world economy makes life in other countries. In Zambia, for instance, the solvency of the society is linked closely to the price of copper. With fortuitous momentum swings in the market, and an IMF loan, Zambia may keep things together. Though press and activist freedom is far from where it needs to be, Zambia is rated "partly free" by Freedom House, and has a strong and improving record on electoral democracy.
moving DOWN
Guatemala	If things are getting so bad that an activist records a video in the event he is murdered, things are really bad. So is the case of Rodrigo Marzano. On the verge of preparing incendiary documents on government embezzlement and fraud when he was killed. Guatemala has shifted into full-on crisis mode in response, and the likely victims will be the people of Guatemala.
Eritrea	A sad case of a nation without the money to provide food, but plenty of funds to provide weaponry, as it sees fit. Largely Muslim Eritrea seems willing to carry on its rivalry with largely Christian Ethiopia (a country of which it was once part), in this case with a proxy contest in the failed state of Somalia. They don't seem to picky of the consequences, as long as they can perceive themselves as having "won".
United Kingdom	New Labor will likely end up as the New Opposition as scandal continues to beleaguer the government. The scandal has it all -- unapologetic privilege, $730 massage chairs bought with public funds, a widening net of links, and a media outlet chasing the story for all its worth. About the only person smiling is David Cameron.

World Ups and Downs, 4/27-5/5

World Ups and Downs, a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week. For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Sri Lanka	Though there remain many humanitarian concerns, the fact of the matter is that one of the most lethal an durable terrorist organizations in the world, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam, are about to be stamped out. This group more or less invented the modern approach of suicide bombing, and has inflicted thousands of casualties on Sri Lanka. Without doubt, Sinhalese discrimination against Tamils is a deep current in Sri Lanka, but the reckless violence of the "Tamil Tigers" means they won't be missed.
India	That a country as disparate, disorganized, and complex as India can hold a federal democratic election is to be lauded. Though the choices are often not inspiring (at least 1/3 of the candidates have an arrest record), they are substantial. The great question, of course, is the fortunes of Mayawati Kumari, self appointed defender of the Dalit ("untouchable") caste who may upset the typical two party system of Congress v the BJP.
moving DOWN
Pakistan	The only thing worse than a failed state is a failed state with nuclear weapons. That the Taliban, a project of the Pakistani Military's secret service, is turning on its creators is simple justice. However, with no real unifying figure to lead the urban educated class, the prospect of a descent into chaos is strong in Pakistan.
Mexico	Early indications are that H1N1, the "swine flu", may become a widespread but ultimately low-danger virus. The only American death at this point is a Mexican child brought to the US for treatment, and the death rate is tailing off in Mexico. Even "patient zero" managed to survive. However, the unholy scare of this pandemic brought the Mexican economy to an abrupt halt, and it may be some time before trade and tourism recover.
Egypt	The shorter story is that Egypt has ordered the slaughter of its entire population of pigs in reactions to the swine flu, an unfortunately named virus that affects humans, and does not affect the quality or safety of pork. Of course, there's much more to that -- the fact that the pigs are raised and eaten by Egypt's small Christian population (pork if forbidden in Islam) means that this is essentially cover for a government attack on the small yet historical Christian community of Egypt. This indicates a sop to the ever-present radical Islamism that the Cairo government does its level best to keep tolerable.

World Ups and Downs of the week

World Ups and Downs, a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week.

For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Cuba	Looks like the American foreign policy establishment is removing its head from its a--, as American-Cuban relations are improving at a very quick pace. If the US can have relations with Belarus and the Sudan, we can with Cuba as well. As the fulcrum group of Cuban-American voters recedes in importance and number, the time may have come for us to give up on this last gasp of the Cold War.
Burundi	The Internet may not have enough room to detail the difficult, bloody history of Burundi: its role in the African World War, the fallout of the Rwandan genocide, and its own struggles. Rare is the central African country that isn't knotted in civil war, but this week the last significant group contesting government rule gave up its weapons, clearing the way for a hopeful future.
moving DOWN
Haiti	It's sad that the second nation to achieve independence in the Americas has so many struggles, especially so close to the riches of the first independent nation. The endemic political instability gets even worse in a bad economy, American diplomatic visits notwithstanding.
Somalia	Though a man calling himself Somali's prime minister is asking for help, the pleadings of a man with as much control over Somalia as you or I may fall on deaf ears. With pirate activity continuing unabated and threatening talk from the criminals, their time in the world's blind spot may be closing. If the world takes steps to stop this piracy, many of those steps may well impact all Somalis in a less than positive way.
Mongolia	Its economy has been quietly collapsing, its currency down 10% in this month relative to the US dollar. Heavily invested in mineral prices, Mongolia acutely feels the effects of the shrinking global demand for the raw materials of manufacturing. Although they may have stemmed the bleeding according to the World Bank, it may be doing so at the cost of falling into China's orbit. Such a move may offer temporary shelter, but in the long run the geopolitical repercussions may exact a higher price.

World Ups and Downs

World Ups and Downs, a view of the national movers and shakers for the past week.

For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Croatia & Albania	I'm not 100% sure what the point of NATO is these days, other than to offer rich Atlantic powers a way to have their militaries hang out, and do jobs they don't trust to the people provided to run UN peacekeeping missions. Whichever, it is one of the prestigious rich clubs that countries ache to get into (unless they're petrified of, or in love with, Russia). This week, Albania and Croatia join the group. Albania in particular seems delirious about the accession, where over 95% reportedly favor the chance to offer their 100,000 tons of obsolete ammunition to the cause.
Moldova	Early moves reminiscent of the Ukraine's"Orange Revolution" have broken out in Moldova as streets fill with people protesting a suspicious election where ex-communists did exceptionally, surprisingly well. Russia, anxious to protect its perceived turf, is already accusing the European Union of meddling. The West, of course, is welcoming this slight climb of the democratic ladder by threatening to downgrade the country's bond status. The Moldovan people are doing the right thing, as people around them aren't.
moving DOWN
South Africa	It appears that the next president of South Africa will begin his tenure under a cloud of suspicion. Prosecutors forswore pursuing ANC candidate Jacob Zuma Reminiscent of the Stevens case, "prosecutors said the withdrawal had nothing to do with Zuma's guilt or innocence". This feels awfully close to the "political solution" an "appalled" Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu feared a couple days beforehand. So South Africa will again be led by a man ignorant of the realities of the AIDS virus.
Thailand	The term "mob rule" doesn't get much more literal than what's happening in Thailand these days. Popular/populist Thaskin Shinawatra was elected on a Chavez-esque platform of screwing the middle class to help the poor. Slightly corrupt and uneven governance was marked by funneling money to the poor during his tenure. Well, the middle class couldn't have that, so organized mobs began protesting until they managed to get the military to install a less populist government, and to begin persecuting Thaskin and his followers. After a period of these people bumbling along, Thaskin's supporters have turned out in force and are currently surrounding the house of a regime general (barriers to the house were removed by two cranes that the protesters brought with them). It seems that we're headed for a cycle when mob rule is the norm in Thailand, where governance is wasted but good food isn't.
Somalia	As many people from Adolf Hitler to Osama bin Laden have learned, the United States is pretty much content to let you do whatever you want to your own people and neighbors as long as America is left alone. Another group -- the pirates of Somalia -- may learn that lesson more directly in the days to come. An American ship was briefly captured, and its captain remains a hostage. Somali pirates have exploded as a concern for Americans. Granted, much of it is from right wingers desperately searching for an Obama mistake, and Americans remains scarred by their last sojourn into Somalia. News of the hostage's rescue brings optimism that a smart president won't paint the are with a broad, explosives-laden brush, but if American ships continue as targets, the people of Somalia may find themselves caught in a conflict they didn't want.
Fiji	The idyllic archipelago of Fiji hosts politics that are anything but. In this latest in the cycle of coups, juntas, and stabs at democratic government, the constitution was just suspended. Though the media is bravely trying to undermine the new regime of censorship, recent history doesn't bode well.

World Ups and Downs

I'm considering starting a new feature of my reader, a weekly international news summary of ups and downs. Time is famous for its weekly summary of mainly domestic ups and downs, and for a while PolitickerMA had them as well. I'm going to do a one-shot deal and see how it's received -- likely in silence -- and consider doing more. International news fascinates me, especially the stuff that slips under the radar screen. I read the Big Three -- BBC News, CNN, and Le Monde daily. Other regional players such as the CBC, (Australian) ABC, Hindustan Times a couple times a week. I'm not Obama, but I'm far better off than Palin or Bush. One of my hopes, in any case, is to move beyond the obvious top tier of countries (Iraq, US, Afghanistan, China, Russia, etc.) to also look at countries that don't receive as much international and American attention.

The idea will be to rank countries for notable changes up or down. I define "up" or "down" in terms of the welfare of its people. Thus, a good week for North Korea's government is probably a bad week for its people. Same in Russia.

That explanation made, I appreciate feedback. And awaaaay we go...

moving UP
United States	The Obamas enjoyed delirious treatment from Britons, Germans, and French this week, helped by the president's personal magnetism, and international relief at dealing with an America leader who isn't a socially awkward moron is palpable. Note: for all the conservative whining about some perceived slight against the British Prime Minister or the Queen's gift, Britons themselves love Obama the Obamas.
Denmark	In a surprise move to many, the Prime Minister of Denmark, overcame earlier Turkish objections to become the civilian leader of NATO. Anders Fogh Rasmussen had angered many Turks for his spirited defense of the right of free speech, even if it extends to mocking the Muslim figure of Muhammad. Rasmussen resigned from his post as Danish PM, and his finance minister will fill the role.
Indonesia	Indonesia, a stunningly diverse country with the most Muslims of any nation in the world, just concluded an almost entirely incident-free democratic campaign for the next parliamentary election. Incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono looks pretty much assured of re-election, partly because his party is the only one seemingly able to knit large slices of the population together in a coalition.
Mexico	The arrest of a top drug lord and increasing attention from the US government to our role in fomenting the drug war in Mexico are two small, precious signs that things may look up for this country riven by incipient warlordism.
moving DOWN
Israel	If you're a people seeking peace with neighbors, the last thing you probably want is a hawkish, probably racist foreign minister. But that's what Israel has in Avigdor Lieberman, whose first speech as such included the line "We have seen that, after all the gestures that we made, after all the dramatic steps we took and all the far-reaching proposals we presented...I have not seen peace here." That kind of contradicts Netanyahu's promise of a new peace process soon, but there may be good news for him: Liberman's so corrupt that he may not have much longer in government, anyway. What happens next is anyone's guess, as this government likely won't last that long, and with a neutered Labor, it's up to the relatively new political party Kadmia to show that it's ready to lead.
North Korea	Despite all the world's huffing and puffing, North Korea still did whatever the f--k it wanted, launching an intercontinental missile. While early reports from around the world indicated that the launch successfully placed in orbit a satellite, we're now hearing that it failed. Meanwhile, the North Korean people starve.
Sudan	Sudanese President and indicted war criminal traveled unfettered to Qatar this week, where many neighbors welcomed him with open arms, giving him regional cover to continue his regime of genocide.