Huh? What?

You mean I'm supposed to keep this blogging thing going still? Since when?

Okay, it's been a bit of a break enforced by real-life. I have a great thing lined up on the reality v. the rhetoric of pensions, I'll type and buff up in the next few days. However, there's good stuff out there worth reading:

I've dabbled (here and here for starters) in the Globe's inability to talk straight about education, but this guy is doing a comprehensive series on the subject over at BMG. Wow.

Speaking of which, Arne Duncan (whose self-reported success stories fall apart under close scrutiny) cheers on the arbitrary firing of Rhode Island teachers. I wonder if the Obama Administration would be so enthusiastic if the victims were financiers rather than teachers. As I note here, the Globe's reaction is that this is a blunt questionable reaction that is nonetheless a good idea.

If you want to learn what real government waste looks like, check out this publicly built, brand-new $160 million airport in Japan that hosts... one flight per day.

RedMassGroup shows its true feelings -- remember when offices didn't belong to the holder, but they were all "the people's seat"?

Why is it that I read the headline "US school cancels prom because of 'lesbian date'" as a headline, I just know that this school will be located south of DC?

And of course, I could never say no to noternie (purveyor of Someday I Will). That's coming up soon.

Questions of Europe and Race

Do Europeans understand what race is?

Quite a contrast in two stories out of Western Europe today. First of all, a rather stunning decision of the French railways to post some rather, er, targeted signage at some railway stations. The signs read:

"In the last few weeks concerns have arisen about Romanians. Indeed, numerous baggage thefts have been noticed.
"We ask you to redouble your vigilance. In addition, all the activities of Romanians should be brought to the attention of the PCNS [rail security services]."

So apparently, there was little proof of this happening by people of a certain, distinct nationality. But to single out a single group (not Roma, or Gypsies, but Romanians) for pubic notice and shaming represents an astounding callousness -- especially seeing that France is probably the most ethnically diverse country in Western Europe, with about 9% of its residents being non-white. It also indicates that a typical French railway worker or customer unfailingly distinguishes between Romanians and Bulgarians, Hungarians, and other neighbors.

On the other side of the Channel, a merchant in England is apparently getting in some hot water for selling what seem to me to be rather humorous shirts:

A company selling "Anyone but England" T-shirts for this year's World Cup has rejected suggestions it is racist after police in Aberdeen visited its store.

First off, the idea that Aberdeen Scots would be upset about this shirt humors me...I'd sooner expect them to support that shirt as "Yankees Suck" is supported in Boston. Secondly, I think the shirt is funny, and understandable. The English have a less-than-sterling reputation as players and fans, and selling these shirts in Scotland seems plain smart to me. If they were selling an "Anybody but Canada" shirt in reference to Olympic hockey, I’d buy one. Thirdly, even if it's in poor taste, it amuses me that police would feel compelled to visit the store.

There are differences in the two stories: undersensitivity in France, oversensitivity in England, for example. However, what they have in common is two things: an official reaction...and poor understanding of the concept of race.

I don’t grasp how the police in England and a union in France declared these respective actions to be "racist". Sure, if you’re an English yob with no sense of humor, I guess you could say the t-shirt is prejudiced -- if you leave aside the fact that it refers to the English soccer team rather than the nation, and the team itself is mixed-race to begin with. But racist? Since when are the English a separate race? Or Romanians?

I’ve read many a survey form that lists "White (non-Hispanic)" as an option, implying that Hispanics are white. Even in the broadest definition, though, I can’t see how Romanians are a different race than the French, the English a different race than the Scottish. What I do see is a culture so inexperienced with multiculturalism and diversity that prominent unions and law enforcement don’t really understand what racism is, and isn’t.

It’s a good thing that whatever it is, they’re against it; but as trackless as American discussion of race seems to be at times, we’re still light-years ahead of the folks across the pond.

Health-care tale from abroad

The good news is that many Americans (such as Ezra Klein, kinda) have fallen out of love with the Canadian system as a model for health care, after they've gotten a decent look at it. Others (such as this example) haven't:

I'm not saying that Canada's approach is perfect. I am sure that it has its troubles, too, but it looks to me that they are doing a better job of caring for their citizens and that we could learn a thing or two from their approach.

However, north of the border, passions are aflame due to the decisions of an administrator of health care in the country. I remember weekends in Montreal where emergency room wait-times exceeded 24 hours. Danny Williams, premier (equivalent of governor) of Newfoundland decided in was in his interest to avoid the Canadian system:

An unapologetic Danny Williams says he was aware his trip to the United States for heart surgery earlier this month would spark outcry, but he concluded his personal health trumped any public fallout over the decision.

Later on, Williams defended his decision, because "this was my heart, my choice and my health". The premier of each province is responsible for administrating health care in his province and is presumably more familiar with his/her system than any other person. Yet Premier Williams -- like Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney years ago -- ducked out to Florida for care he didn't want to get in Canada.

Living in Canada for about six years, I can't and won't blame either one of them one bit. Wait times were atrocious, medical technology obsolete, and understanding of medicine too often questionable. Now, I am fortunate to be in the 84% of Americans who have health insurance. Before that, I was in the significant number of Americans in the remaining 16% who chose not to have it because I was in decent enough physical health.

Of course the system needs reform, for many reasons. However, whatever form that takes I hope it isn't the kind that gives some 30% of Americans better health care, and drives the other 70% to the point where they get care outside of the country if at all possible.

Reading elections: Lessons from Japan

Today, a note on how implacably elections are reduced to a single-issue frame so quickly and easily. Many Bay Staters are reasonably irritated that outsiders (especially those in Washington, DC) are taking Brown’s victory last week as a repudiation of the health care reform process underway in the nation’s capital. While health care was an issue in this election, it was not the only issue. Such a view ignores Brown’s skilled campaign, the Coakley implosion, Democratic over-confidence, and a number of other factors in the result. Worse still, it led to a short press to force House passage of the Senate health care bill, almost regardless of the bill’s contents.

Many bad effects of the special Senate election stem not from the results themselves, but a widespread inability to view an election result as having more than one cause. Just as the Brown victory was likely a combination of the factors listed above (see Nate Silver’s dissection) but has been reduced to a health-care referendum by DC Republicans, it has been simplified a populist surge among Bay State Republicans, and a poor Coakley campaign among most Democrats. However, this tendency to over-simplify election results is not necessarily ideological, nor is it restricted to the American press. One obvious example is the tendency to view every Israeli election as turning on relations with the Palestinian government(s). The fact that Netanyahu was largely elected on economic concerns rather than relations with Fatah and Hamas was almost ignored worldwide. A smaller example presents itself today in the BBC’s summary of the recent election for the mayoralty of Nago on the island of Okinawa. I choose the BBC as the high-water mark of thinking English-language journalism, and even that august organization has failed the test today.

This election occurred against the background of change in Japan. Recently elected prime minister Yukio Hatoyama has declared an interest in a more equitable relationship with the United States, and has been seeking allies within and without Japan on that score. Meanwhile, the US military was well into plans to move a large base on Okinawa (a source of great tension with the surrounding Japanese) per government request, when Hatoyama was elected. His activism on this issue has led to some arch tension between the two countries.

Anyway, let’s get into the story. The prospective new site of the base, the city of Nago on Okinawa, held a recent election wherein a candidate opposed to the base won election, beating the incumbent by a 53-47 margin. And universally, this election is being back-labeled as a referendum on the incoming American base. If the BBC is playing the role of FoxNews, Hatoyama is playing the role of the Republicans, trying furiously to spin a victory of a distant candidate who shares a belief on one issue as confirmation that the people are on his side.

But there are many things at play here (a partial list of issues from the subjective Stars and Stripes for example). Japanese frustration with incumbency has reached levels beyond even the American public and is narrowly targeted at the Liberal Democratic Party, that of the former mayor of Okinawa. The victor, Susumu Inamine, was kept at arm’s length by the government throughout the campaign, the actions of a popular party that wants to claim someone else’s victory of their own only after the fact. At the same time, the LDP is identified with the assimilation of the unique religious and cultural traditions and dialect of Okinawa into the larger Japanese culture, a trend that concerns many Okinawans. Add to this the ongoing problem of the economy – the main point of discussion about the base in Nago wasn’t about the cultural disruption of the American military, but the economic impact of it – not to mention the ground-level dynamics of the election, something that was a major factor in last week’s result for Brown.

The fact is that this election result was the sum of an array of elements, and not one issue -- you have a complex beast that’s being oversimplified by media from outside the electorate.

Kinda like our own Senate election. One wonders how many frustrated Okinawans today are having words put into their mouths by the Japanese prime minister and the worldwide media, just as is happening here in Massachusetts. Something to keep in mind next time we’re told why an election ended the way it did -- at home or abroad.

PS: Not at all related, but worth passing on; I present to you the most professional newscaster in Australia. That's the danger of using a live feed as a backdrop.

"He lurched from crisis to crisis"

Sounds exactly like the type of guy you want to give a second chance to run your country:

Former Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme has been nominated to take office for a second time...His Flemish Christian Democrats, though decisive winners in the election, struggled to form a coalition for the first nine months...The government which finally took office in March 2008 lurched from crisis to crisis. It became bogged down in arguments over how to devolve more powers to Belgium's regions.

I'll call it even money that he's gone by Easter, and Belgium starts over. The place is really getting reminiscent of post-war Italy -- new governments on a yearly basis, the newest one headed by someone previously judged as unfit for office.

(Background on this)

Speaking of odd selections for high-profile jobs, Muammar Gaddafi has been tipped as a regional mediator in the wake of spectacular rioting over soccer...

Algeria qualified for the World Cup by beating Egypt 1-0 in the play-off held in Sudan on 18 November...but Egyptians were incensed by reports that 21 of their fans had been attacked as they left the stadium in Khartoum. At an earlier game between the two sides in Cairo, Algerian players were hurt by stone-throwing Egyptian fans and 32 supporters from both sides were injured in clashes when the match finished.

Storm clouds on the horizon in Brussels...

The European Union's mandarins completed the process of shoving through some forced integration in the form of the Lisbon Treaty, just ratified by all member states. One high-profile change is the creation of a post of "President of Europe" and its first officeholder will be current Belgian Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy. Which leaves an opening for the job of the most thankless and difficult head of government post in the developed world.

I have a fascination for Belgian politics which has been reflected on this blog. I wrote a briefer two years ago on Belgian politics, which were remarkable at the time for going an astounding 168 days between an election and the formation of a government. In capsule form, Belgium consists of two linguistic groups, one Flemish and one Francophone, that are not only separate nations, but have created a Belgian system of government that reserves almost all powers to those separate nations. Thus, finding a head of government who can satisfy both sides is near impossible. In 2007, Yves Laterme was tapped to be such a person, and despite an early wobble, lasted over a year until brought down by a banking scandal. His successor Herman von Rompuy endured through a relatively quiet period until this promotion.

While beaming with pride at their prime minister's promotion, some Belgians are already asking...what next? Prime Ministerial tenure is averaging a Bolivian 11 months recently, and decent candidates seem to be running short. The list is so thin that the most likely replacement is...Yves Leterme. The guy kicked out for pushing judges to rule in a certain direction on a major financial bankruptcy.

We'll close with an original piece by new European President Herman van Rompuy, famed for his haiku:
Hair blows in the wind
After years there is still wind
Sadly no more hair

Interesting People: Eric Gairy

It's been nearly a year since I devoted an entry into my annals of "interesting people", a series focused on persons who stood out during their moment of history, but have largely been forgotten. Shame on me. Today's subject, Sir Eric Gairy. Sir Gairy was a firm and enthusiastic backer of the notion that extraterrestrials were conducting repeated visits to Earth, and that he should do everything in his power to spread this news and make the aliens welcome.

What differentiated Sir Gairy from your typical believer was that "everything in his power" was actually quite a lot, considering that Gairy was a head of government at the time. Oh, and there's an interesting bit about a beauty pageant in here, too.

Gairy was a schoolteacher and labor leader in the British colony of Grenada, calling a general strike to successfully pressure the United Kingdom for independence. But as with so many leaders against colonialism, Gairy's worthiness as a revolutionary strongly outpaced his worthiness as a head of government. Gairy became Prime Minister in 1967, and in true tinpot dictator fashion quickly built his own private army (the Mongoose Gang) within three years. Protesters were attacked, arrested, and killed. He received "advice" from Augusto Pinochet on surpressing his population, while the Grenadan opposition linked up with Fidel Castro. Two years later, he fled to the United States. Gairy would return to Grenada after the American invasion, but would lead a largely unremarkable life until his death. But it was the end of his rule that stands out...

I think it is accepted that these things do exist. I think we now want to know the nature, the origin and the intent of these saucers. Some people think they have come to do good. Some think they have come to dominate human beings.

--Prime Minister Eric Gairy's address to the United Nations

Gairy wasn't speaking academically, it seems. He believed that he'd seen UFOs twice in three years. Amid efforts to build suitable landing facilities for these extraterrestrials in his home country, Gairy spearheaded an effort to bring this urgent concern to the governments of the world. His precarious grasp of reality likely wasn't helped by conversing with a receptive audience in American president Jimmy Carter, who reported having seen a UFO himself. A natural consequence of an amiable chat between these two would be United Nations meetings on this topic. That meeting was chaired by Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim, a man who was, er, willing to believe in extra-terrestrials himself. Several heads of government gathered in New York City to seriously grapple with the question of alien visits to Earth. In a minor way, Gairy's fascination with UFOs would be his undoing -- it was en route to this UFO summit with Waldheim that Gairy learned that he'd been disposed as leader of Grenada.

Before he left, though, Gairy got a nice perk of leadership: he was a judge during the 1970 Miss World pageant. And lo and behold, Miss Grenada walked away with the title. Some cynical commentators were suspicious of the coincidence, particularly as Miss Sweden had won first-place votes from four of the nine judges. Such math is hard to beat, but if one rates a contestant at the very end of the scale consistently, one suspects it can only help.

The world has a long history of kelptocrats. But UFO-believing dictators who liekly played a role in fixing a beauty pageant? That...that is something special.

...and Mousavi, too

I'm a sucky fake pundit because I often wait to sum up my thoughts on something, and by then the topic has passed me by. However, I do want to "round out" the whole thing on Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, and why I believe it is undeserved. I started some thoughts at BMG, but this is a more systemic conclusion.

First of all, I'm in no way blaming any of this on Obama. While arguments abound on whether Obama should have refused this award, I can't fault how he handled this situation. I should also mention that I find it hilarious that the same conservatives who call the Nobel an example of Obama's unseeming friendship with Euro-elites are the same ones cheering the "loss" of the Olympics to Rio (Chicago never had them to lose)...at the hands of those same Euro-elites.

Secondly, while it is tempting to point out that this is "just an award", pragmatic concerns necessitate remembering that with this award comes cash to the total of some $1.2 million. Many people working toward peace are on shoestring budgets, harassed by an autocratic state. That money can build a lot of peace, if used right.

The key point is this -- anytime somebody wins a Nobel Peace Prize, lots of other nominees lose it. When arguing that Obama deserved to win the Nobel Peace Prize, it is insufficient to say that he meets the criteria...Obama should only have won the prize had he met those criteria better than anyone else. That's where the argument that "Obama deserved it" fails. The list of NPP nominees is secret, but for argument's sake let's take the example of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, leader of the nascent democracy movement of Iran (Greg Mortensen or Morgan Tsvangirai work just as well). Using the criteria bandied offered to rationalize Obama's victory, let's see how Obama and Mousavi stack up...

• "Obama has brought hope to the world". Obama brings hope to the world by not being George W Bush. It is true that America's friends around the world are relieved at Bush's retirement, but that frankly would have happened regardless of who the 44th president was. His ideas would have died with President Hillary Clinton, and even to some extent with President John McCain. In that way, there is nothing inherent and unique in Barack Obama that merits this award. Same for variants of the idea that Obama is bringing peace because people around the world love him so. A lot of that love is for the fact that he isn't Bush, and as for the rest...Boris Yeltsin was well-loved around the world in his day as well.
  
  As bad as Bush is, he never denied the Holocaust or threatened to incinerate another country. That is who Mousavi is trying to send into retirement. And Mousavi is doing this by taking his life in his hands, not merely running an election campaign. So in terms of "doing more to change the world for the better", I'd have to give Mousavi the edge.
  
  
• "Obama has rallied the youth of his nation and brought energy to the process". Obama's campaign energized the youth of a country, bringing in 5 million new minority voters. Turnout was up 1.5% over the last election. (Not that this is a major impact on the world).
  
  There are no reliable turnout figures for the 2009 election. However, Mousavi has managed to turn out about a million people in the largest protests in Iran in my lifetime. And unlike Obama's rallies, shooting was a real chance -- and a reality -- at Mousavi's rally. Obama's people voted, Mousavi's people risk their lives. Mousavi again gets the edge.
  
  
• "This is about potential for peace, not what they've achieved" This is hardly worth talking about. I've never head of an Oscar given because the actor's next movie might be great, or a Lasker given because someday a doctor might turn out great research. History's dustbin is filled with people who arrived in office with energy and potential to change the whole game, only to fail to meet that mark -- everyone from Alexander Kerensky to Junichiro Koizumi. Tony Blair became Prime Minister under excitement as intense as Obama's. He was a breath of fresh air for Britain's lurching Conversative foreign policy, and a new hope for the peaceful construction of Europe. Perhaps if John Major had been as loony as Bush, Blair would have won the Peace Prize. (If he'd dispatched Margaret Thatcher, he'd have had an even better chance.) However, nobody had ever claimed Blair should have won the Nobel Prize for being elected.
  
  As for potential for peace, Ahmadinejad has shared responsibility (the extent is unclear) for a nation that supports terrorism at least in Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq. While I'm not going to paint Mousavi as a saint, his potential as president -- remember, we're told that potential matters, not accomplishment -- his potential as president to reverse Ahmadinejad's hateful policies can set more wrongs right than I would argue Obama. With President Mousavi comes not just hope for a more democratic Iran, but a more democratic Lebanon and Syria as well. A three-fer! Once again, Mousavi rises above.
  
  
• "This award is a call to action" I'm glad that's how Obama accepted the award. It's the best he could have handled it. This call to action means to be involved in the community by helping people out, recycling, and trying to improve civil society. I presume Mousavi would like his supporters to do this, you know, after they overthrow an anti-democratic, medieval regime that is suppressing a proud people. Advantage Mousavi.
  
  

There's one last point. One of the most powerful messages of the Nobel Peace Prize is that the world recognized the value of this person, almost named as a "world treasure". And as with ecological or architectural treasures, the world has a vested interest in their well-being. The Dalai Lama and Aum Sung Suu Kyi of Burma are two people whose status as Nobel Laureates has kept them in the eye of the world. Despite Chinese harassment and Burmese intransigence, these two peacebuilders are known figures, not least of all for winning the Nobel Prize. Every autocratic regime has its brave lights fighting for the true peace of freedom (Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe, for example), but can't go the final step of hiding away Kyi in prison or in death because the Nobel Prize confers an almost mythical status to the laureate.

Such status is so essential for people, from Yitzhak Rabin to John Hume to Anwar Sadat who take the chance of angering their communities and rivals with the brave decision to go for peace. If Obama makes strong progress toward peace (something he hasn't much done in Iraq or Afghanistan yet), he will receive a wild-eyed rant from Glenn Beck. If Mousavi makes strong progress, he may well receive a bullet in the head.

A bell can't be unrung, and this prize can't be ungiven. I know some of Obama's most loyal followers think this award is richly deserved, as would be any award given the President. I can't say that Obama emphatically doesn't deserve this, but it is the Mousavis of this world who not only deserve this award, but can use it to do the most good, and produce the most peace.

Congratulations to Barack Obama. As for Mir-Hossein Mousavi, there's always next year -- provided he's still alive.

Good day for the Ayatollahs...

In a great little read about geopolitical history titled Who Hates Whom, the author Bob Harris repeatedly references major events that were underreported because they occurred around the time of the death of Anna Nicole Smith.

I frankly think that the Iranian Revolution may be headed in this direction. Of course, the brave protesters in Iran don't need any external help, and most of the dynamics of the situation in Iran point clearly to a split within the leadership of the country. However, I do believe that the finger has been light on the trigger because the world is watching Iran -- why else would they work so hard to shut down coverage?

Not that the traditional press has covered itself in glory in covering these Iranian protests (much more airtime spent on Jon&Kate), but now I expect they'll ignore Iran altogether. When faced with a choice between celebrity pablum or international reporting, I think it's easy to guess which the media will go for. I have no real problem with Michale Jackson -- I tend to like the music he recorded during his "African-American male" phase and credit him for basically introducing white America to James Brown's dance moves. However, I don't think the importance of his death, which will surely be of the scandalous and confusing variety, matches the importance of the changes now underway in Iran. I expect all manner of coverage about his "legacy", "controversies", and all that rot will dominate the media, giving the monsters who run I ran enough shadow time to send out the Basij to do some random thuggery.

Anyway, it's already happening...

Amusingly, a misspelled variant of his name (”Micheal Jackson”) is the fourth most popular search right now, beating out Iran.

PS: In other news, Deval Patrick has rushed out to claim credit for the Senate's ethics bill. Deval had nothing to do with it except a couple whining videos, but he's working overtime to take credit, and shockingly the usual crew over at BMG can't wait to agree. Apparently, this is all a big win for him (remember when everything was good for John McCain? Same thinking applies). Yawn.

Accidental Heroes

I've been quiet online because I'm hard at work offline these days, working in educational activism and my personal life. However, I was arrested by some photos of the street protests in Iran that I wanted to share...

I'm no expert heaven knows, but I do know enough to realize that the "President of Iran" has about as much impact on his country's policies as does the president of Germany (yes, they do have one). I've in the past referred to the post as that of a "glorified spokesman" as the real decisions are made by the unelected clerics that run Iran. But something funny happened...in the very real election for this very symbolic post, the rulers cheated, and the people of Iran have mobilized...






I don't know if the ayatollahs are hoping that things burn out, or that Moussavi can be co-opted, but Moussavi remains free and is protesting the vote loudly. And when you draw crowds like this asking about their vote, the end result is usually going to be either revolution, or a massacre. Here's hoping for revolution.

(source)

World Ups and Downs, 5/11-5/17

A short pause in our platform programming to return to a hopefully weekly feature, World Ups and Downs. This is a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week, seeing which foreign countries managed to worsen or better the lives of their people. For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
India	The government of India not only pulled off the logistical challenge of the world's largest election, but its people voted for sanity. The Marxists were slapped down, and a strong blow was landed against the bigoted BJP. Congress Party, in many ways the best of bad options, headed for a surprisingly comfortable victory. While the idea of a political dynasty on its fourth generation of adoration fits poorly with democratic principles, at least the voters of India spoke loudly in favor of a smart and sane approach to domestic and foreign policy.
Zambia	Given American problems, it's easy to forget how precipitous the world economy makes life in other countries. In Zambia, for instance, the solvency of the society is linked closely to the price of copper. With fortuitous momentum swings in the market, and an IMF loan, Zambia may keep things together. Though press and activist freedom is far from where it needs to be, Zambia is rated "partly free" by Freedom House, and has a strong and improving record on electoral democracy.
moving DOWN
Guatemala	If things are getting so bad that an activist records a video in the event he is murdered, things are really bad. So is the case of Rodrigo Marzano. On the verge of preparing incendiary documents on government embezzlement and fraud when he was killed. Guatemala has shifted into full-on crisis mode in response, and the likely victims will be the people of Guatemala.
Eritrea	A sad case of a nation without the money to provide food, but plenty of funds to provide weaponry, as it sees fit. Largely Muslim Eritrea seems willing to carry on its rivalry with largely Christian Ethiopia (a country of which it was once part), in this case with a proxy contest in the failed state of Somalia. They don't seem to picky of the consequences, as long as they can perceive themselves as having "won".
United Kingdom	New Labor will likely end up as the New Opposition as scandal continues to beleaguer the government. The scandal has it all -- unapologetic privilege, $730 massage chairs bought with public funds, a widening net of links, and a media outlet chasing the story for all its worth. About the only person smiling is David Cameron.

World Ups and Downs, 4/27-5/5

World Ups and Downs, a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week. For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Sri Lanka	Though there remain many humanitarian concerns, the fact of the matter is that one of the most lethal an durable terrorist organizations in the world, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam, are about to be stamped out. This group more or less invented the modern approach of suicide bombing, and has inflicted thousands of casualties on Sri Lanka. Without doubt, Sinhalese discrimination against Tamils is a deep current in Sri Lanka, but the reckless violence of the "Tamil Tigers" means they won't be missed.
India	That a country as disparate, disorganized, and complex as India can hold a federal democratic election is to be lauded. Though the choices are often not inspiring (at least 1/3 of the candidates have an arrest record), they are substantial. The great question, of course, is the fortunes of Mayawati Kumari, self appointed defender of the Dalit ("untouchable") caste who may upset the typical two party system of Congress v the BJP.
moving DOWN
Pakistan	The only thing worse than a failed state is a failed state with nuclear weapons. That the Taliban, a project of the Pakistani Military's secret service, is turning on its creators is simple justice. However, with no real unifying figure to lead the urban educated class, the prospect of a descent into chaos is strong in Pakistan.
Mexico	Early indications are that H1N1, the "swine flu", may become a widespread but ultimately low-danger virus. The only American death at this point is a Mexican child brought to the US for treatment, and the death rate is tailing off in Mexico. Even "patient zero" managed to survive. However, the unholy scare of this pandemic brought the Mexican economy to an abrupt halt, and it may be some time before trade and tourism recover.
Egypt	The shorter story is that Egypt has ordered the slaughter of its entire population of pigs in reactions to the swine flu, an unfortunately named virus that affects humans, and does not affect the quality or safety of pork. Of course, there's much more to that -- the fact that the pigs are raised and eaten by Egypt's small Christian population (pork if forbidden in Islam) means that this is essentially cover for a government attack on the small yet historical Christian community of Egypt. This indicates a sop to the ever-present radical Islamism that the Cairo government does its level best to keep tolerable.

World Ups and Downs of the week

World Ups and Downs, a view of the global movers and shakers for the past week.

For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Cuba	Looks like the American foreign policy establishment is removing its head from its a--, as American-Cuban relations are improving at a very quick pace. If the US can have relations with Belarus and the Sudan, we can with Cuba as well. As the fulcrum group of Cuban-American voters recedes in importance and number, the time may have come for us to give up on this last gasp of the Cold War.
Burundi	The Internet may not have enough room to detail the difficult, bloody history of Burundi: its role in the African World War, the fallout of the Rwandan genocide, and its own struggles. Rare is the central African country that isn't knotted in civil war, but this week the last significant group contesting government rule gave up its weapons, clearing the way for a hopeful future.
moving DOWN
Haiti	It's sad that the second nation to achieve independence in the Americas has so many struggles, especially so close to the riches of the first independent nation. The endemic political instability gets even worse in a bad economy, American diplomatic visits notwithstanding.
Somalia	Though a man calling himself Somali's prime minister is asking for help, the pleadings of a man with as much control over Somalia as you or I may fall on deaf ears. With pirate activity continuing unabated and threatening talk from the criminals, their time in the world's blind spot may be closing. If the world takes steps to stop this piracy, many of those steps may well impact all Somalis in a less than positive way.
Mongolia	Its economy has been quietly collapsing, its currency down 10% in this month relative to the US dollar. Heavily invested in mineral prices, Mongolia acutely feels the effects of the shrinking global demand for the raw materials of manufacturing. Although they may have stemmed the bleeding according to the World Bank, it may be doing so at the cost of falling into China's orbit. Such a move may offer temporary shelter, but in the long run the geopolitical repercussions may exact a higher price.

So....

What do you think of the new color scheme? Think you could do better? Want to work for free for a demanding client to prove it?

Thanks to the many who came to the blogger dinner/conference/planning session Sunday night in Lynn. Nice to see everyone there...good times. Special kudos to Ryan for organizing the shindig.

My bold prediction: the men's winner of tomorrow's Boston Marathon hails from Kenya or Tanzania.

PS: Interesting list of countries boycotting the UN Conference against Certain Kinds of Racism. The United States and Israel are no surprise given Arab states' use of the conference for their own ends. Similarly, the conservative government in Ottawa apparently withstood Canada's longstanding affection for the UN. Same for right-wingers in Germany and New Zealand I guess -- turns out Obama's actually the exception. But the Netherlands? I figured they'd go and put up the good fight. Naturally, Sarkozy is going, perhaps in an effort to find a buddy who he hasn't managed to insult recently.

World Ups and Downs

World Ups and Downs, a view of the national movers and shakers for the past week.

For a further explanation, see the original post...

moving UP
Croatia & Albania	I'm not 100% sure what the point of NATO is these days, other than to offer rich Atlantic powers a way to have their militaries hang out, and do jobs they don't trust to the people provided to run UN peacekeeping missions. Whichever, it is one of the prestigious rich clubs that countries ache to get into (unless they're petrified of, or in love with, Russia). This week, Albania and Croatia join the group. Albania in particular seems delirious about the accession, where over 95% reportedly favor the chance to offer their 100,000 tons of obsolete ammunition to the cause.
Moldova	Early moves reminiscent of the Ukraine's"Orange Revolution" have broken out in Moldova as streets fill with people protesting a suspicious election where ex-communists did exceptionally, surprisingly well. Russia, anxious to protect its perceived turf, is already accusing the European Union of meddling. The West, of course, is welcoming this slight climb of the democratic ladder by threatening to downgrade the country's bond status. The Moldovan people are doing the right thing, as people around them aren't.
moving DOWN
South Africa	It appears that the next president of South Africa will begin his tenure under a cloud of suspicion. Prosecutors forswore pursuing ANC candidate Jacob Zuma Reminiscent of the Stevens case, "prosecutors said the withdrawal had nothing to do with Zuma's guilt or innocence". This feels awfully close to the "political solution" an "appalled" Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu feared a couple days beforehand. So South Africa will again be led by a man ignorant of the realities of the AIDS virus.
Thailand	The term "mob rule" doesn't get much more literal than what's happening in Thailand these days. Popular/populist Thaskin Shinawatra was elected on a Chavez-esque platform of screwing the middle class to help the poor. Slightly corrupt and uneven governance was marked by funneling money to the poor during his tenure. Well, the middle class couldn't have that, so organized mobs began protesting until they managed to get the military to install a less populist government, and to begin persecuting Thaskin and his followers. After a period of these people bumbling along, Thaskin's supporters have turned out in force and are currently surrounding the house of a regime general (barriers to the house were removed by two cranes that the protesters brought with them). It seems that we're headed for a cycle when mob rule is the norm in Thailand, where governance is wasted but good food isn't.
Somalia	As many people from Adolf Hitler to Osama bin Laden have learned, the United States is pretty much content to let you do whatever you want to your own people and neighbors as long as America is left alone. Another group -- the pirates of Somalia -- may learn that lesson more directly in the days to come. An American ship was briefly captured, and its captain remains a hostage. Somali pirates have exploded as a concern for Americans. Granted, much of it is from right wingers desperately searching for an Obama mistake, and Americans remains scarred by their last sojourn into Somalia. News of the hostage's rescue brings optimism that a smart president won't paint the are with a broad, explosives-laden brush, but if American ships continue as targets, the people of Somalia may find themselves caught in a conflict they didn't want.
Fiji	The idyllic archipelago of Fiji hosts politics that are anything but. In this latest in the cycle of coups, juntas, and stabs at democratic government, the constitution was just suspended. Though the media is bravely trying to undermine the new regime of censorship, recent history doesn't bode well.

World Ups and Downs

I'm considering starting a new feature of my reader, a weekly international news summary of ups and downs. Time is famous for its weekly summary of mainly domestic ups and downs, and for a while PolitickerMA had them as well. I'm going to do a one-shot deal and see how it's received -- likely in silence -- and consider doing more. International news fascinates me, especially the stuff that slips under the radar screen. I read the Big Three -- BBC News, CNN, and Le Monde daily. Other regional players such as the CBC, (Australian) ABC, Hindustan Times a couple times a week. I'm not Obama, but I'm far better off than Palin or Bush. One of my hopes, in any case, is to move beyond the obvious top tier of countries (Iraq, US, Afghanistan, China, Russia, etc.) to also look at countries that don't receive as much international and American attention.

The idea will be to rank countries for notable changes up or down. I define "up" or "down" in terms of the welfare of its people. Thus, a good week for North Korea's government is probably a bad week for its people. Same in Russia.

That explanation made, I appreciate feedback. And awaaaay we go...

moving UP
United States	The Obamas enjoyed delirious treatment from Britons, Germans, and French this week, helped by the president's personal magnetism, and international relief at dealing with an America leader who isn't a socially awkward moron is palpable. Note: for all the conservative whining about some perceived slight against the British Prime Minister or the Queen's gift, Britons themselves love Obama the Obamas.
Denmark	In a surprise move to many, the Prime Minister of Denmark, overcame earlier Turkish objections to become the civilian leader of NATO. Anders Fogh Rasmussen had angered many Turks for his spirited defense of the right of free speech, even if it extends to mocking the Muslim figure of Muhammad. Rasmussen resigned from his post as Danish PM, and his finance minister will fill the role.
Indonesia	Indonesia, a stunningly diverse country with the most Muslims of any nation in the world, just concluded an almost entirely incident-free democratic campaign for the next parliamentary election. Incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono looks pretty much assured of re-election, partly because his party is the only one seemingly able to knit large slices of the population together in a coalition.
Mexico	The arrest of a top drug lord and increasing attention from the US government to our role in fomenting the drug war in Mexico are two small, precious signs that things may look up for this country riven by incipient warlordism.
moving DOWN
Israel	If you're a people seeking peace with neighbors, the last thing you probably want is a hawkish, probably racist foreign minister. But that's what Israel has in Avigdor Lieberman, whose first speech as such included the line "We have seen that, after all the gestures that we made, after all the dramatic steps we took and all the far-reaching proposals we presented...I have not seen peace here." That kind of contradicts Netanyahu's promise of a new peace process soon, but there may be good news for him: Liberman's so corrupt that he may not have much longer in government, anyway. What happens next is anyone's guess, as this government likely won't last that long, and with a neutered Labor, it's up to the relatively new political party Kadmia to show that it's ready to lead.
North Korea	Despite all the world's huffing and puffing, North Korea still did whatever the f--k it wanted, launching an intercontinental missile. While early reports from around the world indicated that the launch successfully placed in orbit a satellite, we're now hearing that it failed. Meanwhile, the North Korean people starve.
Sudan	Sudanese President and indicted war criminal traveled unfettered to Qatar this week, where many neighbors welcomed him with open arms, giving him regional cover to continue his regime of genocide.

In other unfree-speech news...

Despite the American government's propensity for spying on its citizens -- not much changed since January 20th it seems -- we still have more access to free speech than most countries. While Boston College took the condescending and cowardly decision to deny permission for even a satellite link-up to Bill Ayers, at least he's still allowed to move around this country. The idea of banning people with uncomfortable ideas is all the rage through much of the "democratic" West.

Oddly enough, the most recent examples are on the opposite sides. On one side is a member of the Dutch Parliament, Geert Wilders. He was banned from Britain. He managed a nice bit of theatre when he landed in London, was questioned by border guards, and hauled on the next plane out. Wilders is a far-right MP of the "Party for Freedom" and is not dissimilar from assassinated anti-Islamic Dutchman Pim Fortuyn. To be sure, his hyper-xenophobic rants about the "Islamicization of Europe" are way off, but not grounds for banning somebody from speaking. He's an MP -- an elected representative in the Netherlands, and a country that bans someone of his views from speaking also bans people from responding and countering his claims.

Meanwhile, somewhat ironically, the other victim is a British legislator with a polar opposite view of Islam and the modern day. George Galloway, a member of the House of Lords, has been banned from Canada. This very much pro-Islamist member of the House of Lords has put in appearances in Gaza and holds an honorary passport to the Palestinian territories, given him by a leader of Hamas. So he's clearly not of the warm and fuzzy type. And like Wilders, he comes across as an all too useful idiot. That said, banning his ideas only gives Wilders' fellow-travelers more ammunition, and shuts up people who desire to hears all sides of a debate. This is like trying to run the peace process without listening to Assad or Avigdor Lieberman.

I'd make two suggestions:
Fly in Wilders (who is quite good at English) and Galloway into New York City to debate the nature of Islam in the Middle East and Europe. At least this country has the grapes believe think about uncomfortable ideas, not attempt to turn them away at airports. I personally think the truth is well between these two men, but I would like to hear them counter each other far better than I can.

As for my second suggestion, I would simply quote Galloway's challenge to the mandarin in Canada who denied his visa: "Come out and debate me like a man."

Free speech, indeed.

Constable Ban Ki-Moon would be a nice idea...

The Arab League has gathered in Doha, Qatar for its regular meeting, a festival of member spats and condemnations of Israel for all crimes, real and imagined. One of its attendees is a human-shaped rat named Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese president who is a prime architect of the Darfur genocide. There is an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court in place due to his crimes against humanity, but sadly summit host Qatar is not a signatory to the ICC.

Also in attendance at the meetings is UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. While I am aware of all sorts of issues surrounding safe diplomacy and the role of the UN Secretary-General, I really can't escape the fantasy of Ban drugging Bashir and smuggling aboard a plane into a justice-friendly country. It may be a confirmation of conservatives' black helicopter fantasies, but I think it's worth it.

Failing that, I wouldn't mind it if Bashir's pilot deviated a little from its return the pilot flight plan and faked an emergency that would necessitate landing in a suitable country somewhat en route, such as Jordan or Chad.

Of course, given how insane he's already been at the summit, there's a chance that Libryan leader Muammar Qadafi will stab him with a pen and eat his kidneys raw.

Short musings

I think 90% of Twitter is pretty stupid. It's like miniature blogging, and 20 years from now will be the reason nobody has face-to-face conversations anymore. the other 10% is due to people like kick-butt Senator Claire McCaskill.

My understanding is that in any union shop, it's far from easy to get fired. But the only industry where people seem to feel that is a problem is in education. When the Big Dig collapsed, I heard nothing about the idea that it was due to incompetent construction workers protected by seniority. Funny how it's only teachers' unions where seniority apparently has nasty side effects.

Israel is voting on Tuesday. This great in-depth questionnaire tells you which party you seem closest to on the Israeli scale. I'm a Laborite (no surprise there!), but I'd be happy if anyone other than Benyamin "Blow It All Up" Netanyahu wins. Kadima and Tzipi Livni seem to have assembled some last-minute momentum so here's hoping.

Someday I'd like to read an explanation why Tom Allen never really got any purchase in his race against Susan Collins. Now I gotta hear about her for the next six years, dithering on all manner of issues.

Why do I think that bloggers are going to slowly kill off the word "failure", in t same vein that "hatred" was cut off? Invest the time in the second syllable, guys.

Anti-democracy in Israel

No, it's not about Gaza. I'm staying out of that question.

But banning political parties is just wrong and a slap in the face to democracy anywhere. There's no two ways about it, it's wrong:

The Central Elections Committee (CEC) yesterday banned the Arab parties United Arab List-Ta'al and Balad from running in next month's parliamentary elections amid accusations of racism from Arab MKs. Both parties intend to challenge the decision in the Supreme Court.

Members of the CEC conceded yesterday that the chance of the Supreme Court's upholding the ban on both parties was slim.

[...]

The requests to ban the Arab parties were filed by two ultra right parties Yisrael Beiteinu and National Union-National Religious Party.

Senior Labor Party figures lashed out at the party's CEC representative, Eitan Cabel, who voted in favor of banning the two Arab parties.

A couple thoughts:

• Hopefully, the Supreme Court overturns this, but until then, does that mean the cops get to "confiscate" (wreck) all the party's materials?
  
• Labor seems awfully disorganized (one would think they could have gotten this one right), which is one reason Kadima has survived the effective loss of its founder, Ariel Sharon. Likud is the only party that seems to know what it's doing on the campaign front.
  

Mind you, I think this routine is disgusting no matter where it's attempted. Other democracies have sought (Germany) or succeeded (Spain and Belgium) in banning political parties that made the mainstream uncomfortable. This merely pushes the party's supporters outside the political process, where the transition to violence on their part is quicker and easier.

I can't imagine that peace would ever have come to Northern Ireland without Sinn Fein holding a seat at the table throughout, and offering a way inside the system to acquire what so many people were seeking outside the system. I can imagine few things worse than for Israel to silence most of the Arab voices in the Knesset.