Sounds exactly like the type of guy you want to give a second chance to run your country:
Former Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme has been nominated to take office for a second time...His Flemish Christian Democrats, though decisive winners in the election, struggled to form a coalition for the first nine months...The government which finally took office in March 2008 lurched from crisis to crisis. It became bogged down in arguments over how to devolve more powers to Belgium's regions.
I'll call it even money that he's gone by Easter, and Belgium starts over. The place is really getting reminiscent of post-war Italy -- new governments on a yearly basis, the newest one headed by someone previously judged as unfit for office.
Speaking of odd selections for high-profile jobs, Muammar Gaddafi has been tipped as a regional mediator in the wake of spectacular rioting over soccer...
Algeria qualified for the World Cup by beating Egypt 1-0 in the play-off held in Sudan on 18 November...but Egyptians were incensed by reports that 21 of their fans had been attacked as they left the stadium in Khartoum. At an earlier game between the two sides in Cairo, Algerian players were hurt by stone-throwing Egyptian fans and 32 supporters from both sides were injured in clashes when the match finished.
The European Union's mandarins completed the process of shoving through some forced integration in the form of the Lisbon Treaty, just ratified by all member states. One high-profile change is the creation of a post of "President of Europe" and its first officeholder will be current Belgian Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy. Which leaves an opening for the job of the most thankless and difficult head of government post in the developed world.
I have a fascination for Belgian politics which has been reflected on this blog. I wrote a briefer two years ago on Belgian politics, which were remarkable at the time for going an astounding 168 days between an election and the formation of a government. In capsule form, Belgium consists of two linguistic groups, one Flemish and one Francophone, that are not only separate nations, but have created a Belgian system of government that reserves almost all powers to those separate nations. Thus, finding a head of government who can satisfy both sides is near impossible. In 2007, Yves Laterme was tapped to be such a person, and despite an early wobble, lasted over a year until brought down by a banking scandal. His successor Herman von Rompuy endured through a relatively quiet period until this promotion.
While beaming with pride at their prime minister's promotion, some Belgians are already asking...what next? Prime Ministerial tenure is averaging a Bolivian 11 months recently, and decent candidates seem to be running short. The list is so thin that the most likely replacement is...Yves Leterme. The guy kicked out for pushing judges to rule in a certain direction on a major financial bankruptcy.
We'll close with an original piece by new European President Herman van Rompuy, famed for his haiku: Hair blows in the wind After years there is still wind Sadly no more hair
One doesn't have to look that far to find people bemoaning the massive spectacle that is the national political convention. This post was inspired by one recent conversation at my second blogging home at BlueMassGroup. But I'll admit that I like conventions. I hung around the 2004 gathering in Boston, and have attended every Democratic state convention for the past several years. Here's why:
First off, one common complaint is that such a large amount of money is being wasted. Well, NASCAR strikes me as a waste of money, too -- people driving large machines in circles is a billion-dollar industry. But heck, it isn't my money so I don't really care. Same deal on national political conventions. It's not really my money that's being wasted...it's the money of the big-ticket donors to the parties. Sure, one can complain about the easy access of corporate suitors to politicians, but that isn't really the dominant argument. So if the Republicans and Democrats want to blow tons of money into putting on a show, go right ahead.
Secondly, I do love a show. I have no grudge against the feting of men and women who can throw a ball or swing a bat, but if they get such adoration, why not offer a little of the same every four years to people who will be spending our money, and making life-and-death decisions on a daily basis? The Opening Ceremony has no real significance to the athletic competitions, but is an inspiring spectacle. It is a key part of the Olympic experience, as the conventions are a key part of the political experience in our country. It's emotional to see Teddy up there, knowing this will likely be his last convention as Senator. I like pageantry, and I mention later on, it is a key part to raising consciousness and excitement about politics in this country.
Thirdly, I think that there is something important that happens at the state and national conventions. The kind of cross-fertilization of activists and politicians from across the country is important to exchange ideas and foster a feeling of community within the party and the country. Robert Putnam isn't the only one to note the gradual fading of American community, and that includes a sense of political community. This line of work that has such a direct impact on the American quality of life is held in such disrepute by Americans -- politics is universally seen as bad. Conventions give Mario Cuomo, Ann Richards, and Brian Schweitzer -- and Barack Obama -- platforms before audiences across America, establishing common touchstones in America that wouldn't otherwise be known. I've blogged in the past of the disastrous state of Belgium because there is no truly national political conversation, and these shows are a key part in avoiding the same fate in our nation.
If we can give over endless hours of primetime to a glorified singing contest that emphasizes the worst of the worst, to watching a parade of men hit a small white ball and wander off after it, to the solving of grotesque fictional crimes in all its gory forensic detail, we can bloody well examine and celebrate the machinery of American democracy. Politics should be seen as honorable and exciting again, and the conventions are part of approaching that change.
Fourthly, politics is a subject about which Americans are pretty ignorant. Take the example of the recent poll wherein 1% of respondents said they thought that Obama was Jewish. Americans are clueless about where things are in the Middle East, and are seemingly ready to give away the Bill of Rights as they don't know what's in it.
If it takes endless stagecraft, bad cover songs, dozens of speeches, and funny hats by the hundreds to hit Americans over the head until they come to understand the broad outlines of the American political scene, so be it. They may be excessive and strictly speaking not necessary to political process, but it is one of the few remaining keys to American political community -- and that I think makes them a good thing. Besides, you can always change the channel.
Doing my part to fill the void of Belgium-centered news in the American media, I thought I'd update loyal readers on my series Belgium Held Hostage. Last we checked in, it seemed that a government had been cobbled together that could attempt to govern the country, some 200 days after the election.
Well, about 130 days into the government's tenure, the prime minister of Belgium, Yves Leterme, submitted his resignation to the king. Citing the inability to resolve these conflicts between the linguistic communities of Belgium before a self-imposed deadline, Leterme offered his resignation.
It's currently unclear what happens next, though Le Soir reports that Leterme may continue on as prime minister, and a team of "mediators" will be appointed to attempt to resolve this crisis.
Although I think that odds are that Belgium will remain a unified nation, those odds seem to shorten every time I look.
Update: That is indeed what will happen. The king refused the resignation, and instead appointed the President of the Germanophone Community of Belgium, a Bruxellois member of Parliament, and a Francophone member of the European Parliametn to serve as eminences grises in the effort to create a new linguistic consensus.
Update II: I got a link from CNN for talking about this, for about five minutes.
I have in the past posted some thoughts on the, um, situation in Belgium. Previous posts explain why Belgium hasn't had a federal government in nearly 200 days.
Today, I'll talk about the way out...sort of.
The "solution" is to punt. Current "outgoing" prime minister Guy Verhofstadt will remain PM until March 23rd, at which point presumptive PM Yves Leterme will take over. Mind you, possible coalition partners are starting to realize that this "plan" doesn't resolve their objection to Yves Leterme as Prime Minister, rather it delays their reckoning. In the article linked to, one Flemish party leader states in what I imagine is a "hey...wait a minute..." voice that there is no such thing as an interim government.
And that's the good news.
The bad news? Belgians are starting to parallel the break-up of Czechoslovakia in an important way. After the "Velvet Revolution" whereby Czechoslovakia became truly independent from the USSR/Russia, the country slowly and amicably broke into the two countries that exist today, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This break-up was actually driven by the top (rare for nationalist problems), and the elites' inabilities to work together eventually filtered down to the people of the country, who slowly came to agree with the idea of separation.
Well, this may be happening here. Belgians' greatest expression of nationalism has been over the transfer of massive funds from the Dutch-speaking Flemish to the French-speaking Walloons. This is economic regionalization, common around the world (happens in the US and Canada as well), but now Belgium is experiencing divisions over language. In addition to dislike for Yves Leterme for his ignorance of Walloon culture, now it's leaking into beauty pageants. This lovely French-speaking contestant at the "Miss Belgium" pageant is whistled and booed for her ignorance of Dutch. Such a thing would be unheard of three years ago:
In the developed world, division over language use and knowledge is the most pernicious and intractable symptom of a real problem, and we are seeing it here.
35,000 people marched for more government! (for English coverage, try Flemish news service flandersnews). The situation alluded to earlier has worsened, and I explain in more detail why below...
Belgium has two versions of federalism. One based on regions (in this map, Dutch-speaking Flanders in yellow, French-speaking Wallonia in red at bottom, and French-speaking Brussels is the red dot in the sea of yellow.)
Also, the country is divided into linguistic communities -- French, Dutch, and German (the blue stuff on the right). In an interesting experiment, these legislatures are non-territorial. A registered francophone living in Flanders votes for seats in the French-speaking parliament.
This is the loosest constitutional federalism in the developed world. In addition to such typical competences as education and language, these smaller units also have strong sway over justice and some departments of international relations (that's right -- the two larger sections of Belgium run largely independent foreign policies in some arenas).
This political bifurcation of Belgium has gone all the way to the political apparatus at this point. There is no national political party in the country as everyone -- Greens, Socialists, Liberals, etc., is divided into two groups that work together. So you have les socialistes and die socialistiche. French-speaking parties run only in French-speaking areas and vice versa.
While some parties worked more closely with their partner than others (Green MPs would even take their parliamentary oath in their second language), one could usually expect all Belgiane Liberals or all the Socialists to support a common candidate, giving that person a working coalition.
Until Yves Leterme came along. He is among the first whose career flowered during this divisive time. "Mr. Flanders" as he's known is a popular figure in Dutch-speaking Flanders...and unknown in Wallonia. So, when he introduces himself by, say, not knowing the French words to the Belgian national anthem and humming "Le Marsaiellaise" instead, well it's bad mojo. Imagine a New England presidential candidate ignorant of Jefferson Davis, Fort Sumter, and NASCAR all rolled into one. That's what we got with Yves. Oh, and he's ignorant of the French-based origin of the Belgian equivalent of July 4th. Video below for French-speakers:
Now the 40% of the Belgian political establishment that is French-speaking loathes him. About 40% of the Flemish-speaking establishment already detested him because of his take-no-prisoners climb to the top. It's tough to build a coalition when the top vote-getter was alienated two-thirds of the country. Their best hope for a prime minister is hated much more that tolerated.
What will happen next is open to question. The king (yes, they have one) has tried to bring people together to no avail. New elections would likely be a boon for the smaller nationalist parties. A sacrifice of Leterme is not impossible.
But have you heard about massive waves of starvation? Panic in the Belgian countryside? Of course not -- because it seems increasingly that the federal government plays the same role in Belgium as county government in Massachusetts -- nice to have but not horribly, necessary.
The geographical and linguistic communities handle most domestic chores. The Brussels-based Europe Union does monetary, financial and increasingly foreign policy (and the Belgian elite love the idea of the EU), and Brussels-based NATO directs what armed forces they have.
Whether this is the end of Belgium, stumbling to dissolution as did Czechoslovakia is possible. Unlikely says I, but possible. In any case, an interesting story...
On June 10, 2007, the people of Belgium voted. After the votes were tallied, Belgians probably expected the politicians to, you know, form a government. Sometime soon. As in, before 2008.
Most of Belgium speaks Flemish Dutch, about a third of the country speaks French (a fraction speaks German, but they don't count). And never the twain do meet. No political party runs in both linguistic communities -- it's one or the other. So a man or woman can end up hugely famous in Flanders and be completely unknown in French-speaking Wallonia. Which makes it kind of awkward if you're that guy -- Yves Leterme -- and you want to be Prime Minister, and half of your putative government has barely heard of you. Throw in ignorance of your own country's national anthem in its secondary language, and you have yourself no government.
Meanwhile, the French and Dutch linguistic regions merrily continue to set their own budgets, run their own schools (free of the hillbilly attempts at federal interference we have here) and conduct their own foreign policies. That's right -- parts of Belgium can have different foreign policies. And above all that the European Union runs other things.
Maybe they don't need a Prime Minister, which is good -- they don't have one.
On the other hand, they do have excellent French Fries. Mayonnaise required.
Kind of a mix of stuff. Thoughts on politics in Massachusetts, the US, and the world. Thoughts on being an atheist in a country that somehow bridges 21st century technology and 19th century-style theocracy. Food...mmm, food. Oh, and I teach, so fun stuff about education.
Quriltai: A meeting of Mongol chieftains, usually to choose a new leader, similar to the Afghan Loya Jirga. The greatest "near miss" of European history was the calling of a quriltai in 1242 after the death of Ogodei Khan (son of Genghis). The greatest Mongol general, Sabutai and his "hordes" turned away from the gates of Vienna and the vulnerable riches of Europe to elect Ogodei's successor. After the quriltai elected Guyuk Khan, the armies never returned to Europe in strength.
Belgium has two versions of federalism. One based on regions (in this map, Dutch-speaking Flanders in yellow, French-speaking Wallonia in red at bottom, and French-speaking Brussels is the red dot in the sea of yellow.)
