What would a brokered convention look like? Part I

If there's any idea that can make a political analyst shudder with sinful pleasure (aside from a no-strings attached grant), it's the idea of a brokered political convention. Today I'm starting a 4-part series on what a brokered convention may look like in 2008:

Part I: What is a brokered convention? Past examples
Part II: A brokered national convention in action: December 2006
Part III: Possibilities for this year
Part IV: Denver Debacle: Democrats Divided

A "brokered" convention is one in which no candidate possesses a majority of delegates going into the convention, meaning that the candidate selection will not be automatic. Since the 1980s, the convention has been an elaborately staged coronation, with delegates voting in the winner through a largely pro forma exercise. Media folks, who always whine about how meaningless conventions are, openly pine for a convention with a "floor fight" wherein candidates attempt to assemble a majority through an orgy of deal-making, pressure, and all-out political hustling. We may see such a scene before us again.

The last time there was a convention with any sense of drama in the United States was in 1980, when Democrat Ted Kennedy was seeking to undermine incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Carter possessed a majority of delegates, but was clearly headed for a loss to Ronald Reagan. Attempts by the Kennedy foes to change the rules freeing all delegates to vote their conscience failed (excellent details here.)

One can also examine the Green Party convention of 2004 in Milwaukee. The result was unclear going in, because delegates could choose between eventual nominee David Cobb or "uncommitted", leaving the door open for Ralph Nader to run as their nominee. With Nader characteristically prevaricating on the question, Cobb won on the third ballot with 408 of 769 votes. Although a national convention, the low Green delegate count (held in a room that called to mind the regional awards of Amway) stripped out most of the theatrics that make a major brokered convention such a scene. For a vague idea, you can always check out the episode of The West Wing called "2162 votes" about a fictional brokered convention of the Democratic Party.

Before that, you have to go back to '52 when the Democrats needed three rounds of balloting to choose sacrificial lamb Adlai Stevenson over Estes Kefauver. Stevenson would go on to be slaughtered by General Eisenhower, and enjoy it so much that he repeated his massive loss four years later.

In recent times, a frontrunner has emerged in either party early on in the process. There have been early contests with more than one figure, though it winnows quickly. (Since the 1960s, Iowa and New Hampshire have picked the eventual winner less than half the time, and that streak will continue in 2008.) The money to keep going will often unite behind a particular candidate, especially as the game changes from retail politics in small states to relying on advertisements and message. Although Jesse Jackson in 1988 and John McCain in 2000 made decent runs at it, their campaigns eventually faded before Dukakis and Bush.

One reason for these failures was the extended nomination schedule. By the time the really big states such as California and New York had swung in, the party had generally united around one candidate over the course of the previous primaries and caucuses. Jackson won Michigan, but lost most everything else by the time the big states had their voice. These larger states -- with larger delegate counts -- put a rubber stamp on the choice, providing the delegates that gave candidates the majority.


However, this year the field remains divided on the Republican side and to an extent on the Democratic side. When the big states vote on "MegaTuesday", February 5th, there is an excellent chance that more than one candidate will emerge with many delegates. All the states in this map are voting on that day (purple indicates both parties vote that day). With enough money, they could push this thing all the way to the convention.

But more about that in Part III. Next part, I want to examine a national convention from just over a year ago. This convention was brokered, and a shrewd operator entered in third place, and left in first.