Sunday, July 12, 2009

Entertainment

The gubernatorial campaign, while shaping up to be a kicker, isn't the only entertainment upcoming. Let me make some recommendations for entertainment for the months ahead:

  • Leverage on TNT. Fun thief/con show with Timothy Hutton. After Battlestar Galactica went off air, it's the only show I pay any attention to these days...I'm not one to watch television. I recommend recording it and catching up, as the second season starts on Wednesday. It is light but cracking entertainment with good inter-personal tensions that add to, but don't take over from, the episode plotlines.
  • Waterfire in Providence. It's free, it's beautiful, and hauntingly romantic. About 100 bonfires light the rivers of downtown Providence while music plays. Worth a Saturday night or two--check the schedule.
  • Read a book. Ones to search out -- Life As We Knew It, a young adult novel about the struggles of a family in the wake of a celestial disaster. The Road to Gondolfo, a comedy by Robert Ludlum (yes, that's right). And, In Defense of Food, which will make you re-examine your diet and the hype of the diet industry. Ones to avoid -- The Unincorporated Man, turgid scifi with cardboard characters, dead-end plotlines, and a vague interest concept run into the ground, and Flood by Steven Baxter, an environmental disaster book that takes several hundred pages to get a plot running at speed, and no reason to care how it ends.
  • Watch Mr. Deity websiodes. Although more focused on atheism and the trials of religion from the point of view of God and Lucy (Lucifer), it isn't preachy and has a dry sense of humor. In the one embedded below, Mr. Deity -- stage name "God" -- gets a phone call from a familiar penitent:


Friday, July 10, 2009

Anti-casino voters not at home among Dems

David makes a good point in his addendum over at BMG. Basically, that anti-gambling voters are not going to be interested in voting for any current or former Democrats running for governor unless they are pushed in that direction by an egregious Republican candidate...

  • Cahill loves gambling and would station slot machines inside elementary schools if he thought he could get away with it.
  • Deval Patrick "only" wants at least one resort casino in Mass.
Of course, the issue is that Republicans often present themselves as neolithics against marriage equality, any abortion, and basically on the losing side of mid-90s culture war issues. If Massachusetts Republicans can avoid that, then anti-gambling folks might give them a listen.

Now, living in a town that may end up hosting such a casino does tend to focus the mind greatly on gambling, and people distant to the issue may not realize how quickly it rises up the priority list for such a voter. I suspect that gambling may be an issue that is either nearly irrelevant to picking a candidate, or very relevant -- not in between. However, anyone who cares deeply about gambling is going to be hard-pressed to give Cahill or Patrick his/her trust on the matter.

If Mihos or Baker can minimize hot-button issues from the past (abortion, gay marriage) and collect those anti-gambling voters, that would be the foundation to a strong coalition. Mihos has come out against casinos, but favors slots at racing tracks, something that makes him a real player in my neighborhood of SE Mass. I would also note that Mihos has taken my advice and is labeling himself an "Independent Republican" for governor on his website.

In 2007, a poll found that about 1/3 of unenrolled voters and 1/3 of Democrats were against Deval's proposal. About 1/5 of those groups are strongly against the proposal. If Baker or Mihos can neutralize the hot-button issues while coming out strongly and smartly against gambling, they would be the natural candidate for that 20% of the electorate -- including people who may have been with Deval in 2006.

PS: Another nugget from the poll -- Martha Coakley had +66 net favorability among Democrats, +29 net favorability among unenrolled, and +9 favorability among Republicans. That would drop in any race, but I really have to believe this woman has a future in this state.

A Grown-up Gubernatorial Address on Education

No, it's not something any actual candidate has said. I'm thinking of doing a series of posts detailing what a reality-based candidate could say on these issues, but I don't expect it to be widely echoed. Reality-based discourses don't poll well, I guess.

Instead, I'm going to write addresses a fictional candidate could deliver on topics such as taxation, education, economy, and energy that dismantle some of the precious shibboleths that polticians and media use to infect our discourse. Naturally, I'm going to start with education, with a proposed discourse that is far too heavy on facts and far too light on hysteria to ever be delivered.

"Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and I thank you for coming. I'm here to speak with you about public education in our Commonwealth that serves all our children. I want to talk to you about the problems we face, and the solutions we have to consider. I agree with my fellow candidates that some of our approaches to education reflect a long-dead past, but I disagree with their proposed solutions. Most of all, I very strongly disagree with their fearmongering on the issue. It smacks of cheap politics for cheap political ends.

The fearmongering of which I speak is the habit of politicians to use inaccurate and dire language about our system in order to grab headlines. Governor Patrick's 'Readiness Report' uses the word crisis four times to describe our system. While the funding picture is depressing in these economic times, I will tell you that the way we educate our students is proven, and is emphatically not creating the crisis that politicians desire that would let them force through their agendas.. I know talking about data and studies won't make me seem visionary and won't grab time on the news, but I have faith that the people of Massachusetts do not need hysteria to work on the problems that we do have.

I'll tell you the direct information. There are many standardized tests that compare Massachusetts students to their compatriots around the country, and their verdict is unanimous. Whether it's the ACT for college-bound students, or the NAEP for fourth and eighth graders, Massachusetts students rank higher than those in any other state in the nation. If we look at the international TIMMS test, not only do Bay State students beat the nation, but when they are compared to those of other countries, our public school students hold ability levels that rank in the top five ...in the world. That's right, this system that politicians want you to believe lurches in eternal crisis and ignorance is one of the best on the planet.

I personally think that if our students are among the top five in the world, we're doing plenty right. I personally believe that tearing down such a successful system for the sake of pretending to have bold vision only helps politicians, not students. I refuse to play that game. The governor has endorsed a report which pushes the idea of taking local control of schools away through forced regionalization. His Secretary of Education just announced a desire to take direct control of thirty unnamed schools for unnamed reasons. There's no basis for either one, but both ideas take power from students' families and deposits it with the governor's office.

I don't believe that civil servants in Boston know how to run a school better than the families that live near it,. I certainly don't believe those families should pay Boston for the privilege of giving up control of their schools. This approach failed in Chelsea and Springfield, and I don't know why it would work now.

As governor, I will not trample on the right of citizens to govern their neighborhood schools. As governor, I will not insult those citizens by manufacturing crises for the sake of a day's worth of headlines.

There are problems in our K-12 system that reflect challenges in schools across the nation. There are large achievement gaps among our students, and far too many of our youth drop out of schools. There are good ways to tackle these problems, but fellow politicians prefer the quick and easy illusion of decisiveness, and that will only hurt our children.

To begin with, I disagree with others who say that the solution is more of the same of what we do -- more days and more hours. The governor's statement that a child's work day should be as long as an adult's doesn't even deserve a serious reply. I believe that our children should be treated as children, not future cogs in an economic system. Learning to independently play, explore, learn, and discover is as important as being drilled in standardized tests. The greatest poison we can introduce to our children is to abhor learning, to associate it with drudgery and pain -- and that is what so many others propose.

I also disagree that the same private sector that gave us Bechtel, Lehman Brothers, and Halliburton is the one that should manage our education. From California to Utah to New York to Arizona, charter schools constantly flirt with bankrupcty as children's chance at an education hangs in the balance. It is troublesome enough that our system is built around privately run tests coming from a company who relies on students' failures to pay salaries, but I do not want to rely on the private sector for the greatest trust our society has to offer. However, so many of my colleagues in government want to farm out schools to all manner of concerns -- amorphous groups formed to claim a "Readiness Charter" per Deval Patrick, other interests looking to open the doors of a little-regulated charter school, such as the one just shut down in Boston after years of under-serving our students. All my opponents can do is point to a questionable study serving charters' interests with severe methodoligical issues.

I figured that we learned about the dangers of privatizing government during the Weld years, and I'm sorry my opponents have forgotten that lesson already.

It is true that we have, as I like to think of it, an eighteenth century system scaled up to twenty-first century proportions. An academy system designed to train privileged would-be didacts of an agricultural system is a poor fit for our post-industrial society. But we have a solution in our public education system already -- it's called vocational education.

Vocational education is a system that open up lucrative career opportunities to our students, but those opportunities are too few today. Students who are ideal candidate for vocational schools are turned away due to limited space. These schools, which give students immediately useful skills for the job market and are under local control, are the best model for at-risk students who do not thrive in academy settings.

Hand-in-hand with vocational schools are magnet schools, locally controlled schools that specialize in art, music, mathematics, or other fields. These two models offer alternate pathways toward success from the standard academy model. They also turn away thousands of students per year.

That is why I will increase funding of these schools to double capacity in our magnet and vocational systems in ten years. This means expanding shcools, hiring staff, and even building new schools. We have wasted enough time trying to make students' learning conform to our system -- it is time to make our system conform to students' learning.

I would remiss if I did not mention funding. It is true that schools demand resources at a time when there seem to be fewer to offer. Reactions have been predictable -- the desire to place blame on invisible waste, to attack education professionals, as always the desire to exploit this trouble for political benefit. The plain fact is that every enterprise that employs people is suffering as health costs spiral out of control, and those costs show up in the budgets of everything from public schools to private companies. We've taken the first steps toward taming these costs here in Massachusetts, and President Obama and his people are welcome to examine our successes as they plan on health care reform nationwide. But let's be clear -- lashing out by cutting budgets to no end, eliminating workers' rights to organize, or attacking public education is not how we solve a problem created by our health care system. And I refuse to do it.

If I am elected governor, I will do something radical -- I will treat the citizens of Massachusetts as adults when I talk about education. I will not indulge in hysteria for the sake of polls. I will not find people, communities, or good habits to blame. I will not point the finger at professionals or towns while declaring I am "non-partisan". I will not sell out our successful system to private interests in the hopes of appearing decisive.

I will defend a system that works as well as any in the world. I will rely on studies that are reliable, not those convenient to a transitory agenda. I will work with the people who care about education -- children, families, communities, and professionals -- every day. I will not divide them with an eye toward Election Day. The people of Massachusetts deserve an excellent public education system. They have that. They also deserve a serious conversation about public education -- and I think they haven't had that in a while.

If that is what you want from a governor, I would appreciate your vote."

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Deval's win: primary voters + 20% of the rest

In the wake of an apparent three-way election, I just wanted to run the numbers based on the results of the 2006 gubernatorial election in Massachusetts, reproduced further below. What I found is bad news for anyone not named Deval Patrick.

For giggles' sake, I took every single Democrat who did not vote for Deval Patrick in the primary, and awarded their votes to a mythical Independent candidate, named Tim C. in the general. Unenrolled voters, and Democrats who did not vote in the primary, went untouched. The results would have been:





Healey/ Hillman784,342
Patrick/ Murray775,652
Tim C./ Guy G.*459,332
Mihos/ Sullivan154,628

*for example

This proves nothing (for many, many reasons) about what will happen in 2010. What it does indicate is that even if we reduce Deval Patrick's vote total to Democrats who liked him during the primary, he's in great shape. Even subtracting every Democrat who did not vote for Deval Patrick in the 2006 primary -- discounting any idea of party loyalty -- you have to figure that Deval Patrick starts with about 700,000 votes in hand, almost a third of the total cast. That even allows for a large percentage of Deval Patrick supporters who have since moved away. In any case, if you start a three-way race with 1/3 of the votes on your side before the debate even begins, you have a really great chance of winning the whole enchilada.

Hypothetical: Tim Cahill runs a meandering campaign that nonetheless does a bit better than Mihos and captures 10% of the vote, or about 220,000 votes. That means that in order to win, Deval Patrick needs to keep his loyal soldiers from the 2006 primary season, and merely add on about one-fifth of the remaining electorate.

I'll repeat that -- Deval's winning coalition is:
2006 primary voters + one-fifth of the entire remaining electorate.

That 20% is a small majority of Democrats who voted for Reilly or Gabrieli in the primary. Or a healthy dollop of first-time or second-time voters, or a fair amount of unenrolleds. What it means is that unless Cahill can somehow poach on people who sided with Deval Patrick way back when, Cahill isn't moving up in the world, and Deval isn't moving out of his office.



Democratic gubernatorial primary[33]
Candidate Votes % ±%
Deval Patrick 452,229 49.57%
Chris Gabrieli 248,301 27.22%
Tom Reilly 211,031 23.13%
Write-in 787 0.08%
Blanks 14,054

Majority 203,928 22.35%
Turnout 926,402
2006 gubernatorial election, Massachusetts[34]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Democratic Deval Patrick
(Tim Murray)
1,234,984 55.64% +10.70

Republican Kerry Healey
(Reed Hillman)
784,342 35.33% -14.44

Independent Christy Mihos
(John J. Sullivan)
154,628 6.97% +6.27

Green-Rainbow Grace Ross
(Martina Robinson)
43,193 1.95% -1.54

Write-in All others 2,632 0.12 +.06
Total votes 2,219,779 55.63%% + 0.40


Blank 24,056

Turnout 2,243,835

Majority 450,642 20.30%

Democratic gain from Republican Swing + 25.13

Power easy to get in Alaska

Becoming the governor of Alaska is starting to look pretty easy. Sarah Palin got elected on the strength of her experience "running" Wasilla and sitting on some government board. I thought that was a jump, but rapid and bewildering promotions are apparently part of Alaskan culture...Palin's legal successor is the guy who runs their prisons:

The state Legislature already confirmed a line of succession [to Governor Palin] under which corrections commissioner Joe Schmidt should be taking over as lieutenant governor.
Not the treasurer, head of the legislature, or attorney general. Not even the mayor of the largest city. No...the chief corrections officer takes over if the governorship of Alaska opens up. I'm not sure I'd want the state's chief jailer suddenly becoming the state's chief executive, but it's not my state. I'm not sure what role the lieutenant governor of Alaska then fills, but again -- it's not my state.

As for why this happened, my best guess is reminiscent of Britain's 1701 Act of Settlement. As the eighteenth century dawned, the reigning Princess Anne was getting in poor shape and thoughts turned to the next monarch of England. Such thinkers quickly realized that the 50 or so closest "heirs to the throne" according to law were all Catholic. Consequently, British succession law was hastily re-written to ensure that the next monarch was Protestant, whoever it would have to be. And...it had to be some German fellow who couldn't even speak English. That's right, when King George I of England acceded to the English throne, he couldn't speak English, which I imagine was awkward in all sorts of ways.

So, I can only guess the Alaska Legislature created their own cognate of the Act of Settlement in order to steer power away from Palin and her buddies. Instead, the chief jailer will now be running the state. Hopefully, it works out better for them.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

The finest leader in Mass.

Martha Coakley:

The state is challenging the constitutionality of the federal 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, saying the law denies "essential rights and protections" to same-sex couples who have married since Massachusetts became the first state in the nation to legalize gay weddings in 2004.

The federal law interferes with the state's "sovereign authority to define and regulate marriage," according to the suit filed in federal court in Boston. It calls the law "overreaching and discriminatory."
This is real leadership. Looking at the depressing specter of a gubernatorial race featuring an HMO penny-pincher, Obama's understudy, a failed Democrat, and a bombastic Cianci-lite, it's nice to see that somebody can show leadership in this state. Coakley is showing what she's made of here, and continuing the recent tradition of the Massachusetts AG standing for what's right against the federal government, tobacco companies, and even Microsoft.

Huge bonus points for any gubernatorial candidate who publicly declares support for this lawsuit. If any of them, perhaps the lawyers, files an amicus curae, I'll be delighted.

PS: I'm not looking forward to the depths of depravity that Obama's Department of Justice will go to defend this law.

PPS: One thing that stands about blog coverage of this -- the Massachusetts set is ignoring Coakley's leadership in filing this suit, while the national folks put her name all over it. Coakley (like Terry Murray) usually gets underestimated and under-credited by progressive bloggers in the Bay State, so this is no surprise, but passive-voice headlines "Lawsuit against DOMA filed by Massachusetts" are a slap in the face of the Attorney General. Imagine the hagiography we'd have seen had Deval Patrick sent a press release about the case.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Cahill bails, everyone loses

Apparently Tim isn't tough enough for a Democratic primary. Sure, the deck was stacked against him, but he's re-registered out of the Democratic Party in preparation of an all-but-definite run for the governorship.

I figure nearly everyone loses:
  • Cahill loses his job, and his bid for the governor.
  • Deval Patrick supporters lose any impetus to reflect on their concept of the Democratic Party.
  • Old-school Democrats lose their strongest representative in the conversation within the party.
  • The Democratic Party's tent gets smaller.

Only Deval Patrick wins, which means that many prolific bloggers will celebrate this as a great day.

First off, I'm not voting for Cahill. If he isn't tough enough to take on Deval in a primary, he isn't tough enough to take on the problems facing this state. His infatuation with predatory gambling is nearly an addiction in its own right, and he is a cipher on too many issues. But beyond that, Cahill is running just to the left of the Republicans and just to the right of Deval. If the ideological field is going to be split that finely, the election comes down to organization and machine, something the Democrats and Deval Patrick have to spare.

What this does mean, however, is a pull to accompany a pre-existing push on many Democrats. There is a traditionalist view of the Democratic Party that predates my birth or Deval's move to Massachusetts. It's the view that a man (or woman) could count of the Democratic Party to make sure s/he could put food on the table, back up his/her right to be in a union to do it, and otherwise leave them alone. The Dems were for the common man, but they weren't going to tell the common man how to run his life.

That school of thought has been a subject of attack by Deval Patrick's followers, who love bureaucratic expansion, basing sales taxes on calorie count (soda, for example), loathe labor organization, and have the solution to any number of social issues. I'm not saying they're all wrong, but there's a lot of wrong in that approach. In addition, their palpable condescension for any other point of view than what they've newly discovered is a real push on the Democrats who built this party in the 50s and 60s.

Now these people being pushed out have somewhere to go -- the Tim Cahill campaign. Cahill is kind of a Democrat, and he's no Republican. He's not going to call you a cynic or a naysayer because you disagree with him, and he's not going to tell you he knows how you should live your life better than you do.

All of which is probably going to be very attractive to thousands of Democrats who are treated as pariahs in their own party -- the party many of them built before a dry run was needed for Obama's campaign. So as the Devalcolytes push these folks away from the party, the Cahillians are going to pull them into their campaign. Sure, it may only be 5-10% of the electorate, but that makes a difference in close State House and county races. Who knows -- if Cahill gets his head straight about gambling and education, I may be part of that 5-10%.

Of course, in December 2010 Cahill's campaign is dead, and his political future likely will be, too. The Democratic Party's "big tent" will have shrunk, and there will be a large group of people looking for a political home as the Cahill campaign is subject to electoral forclosure.

And if the Republican Party ever pulls its head out of its a--, those people are their ticket back to relevance. So I guess it's not just Deval who wins.

(Update): Blogging compatriot Charley on the MTA over at BMG has kindly linked to this post calling me an "inveterate Deval hater". The emoticon makes it clear that the comment is meant tongue in cheek. I think. Either way, it helps support some of my points.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Deval's on schools: how serious?

The latest move from the Executive Branch of our fair commonwealth arrived three days ago:

The Patrick administration, in a sharp deviation from previous state policy, will seek legislative approval to take over about 30 of the state’s worst schools and dramatically weaken their teacher contracts, as part of the governor’s effort to overhaul public education.

If this were to pass, this would be a radical change in education in this state, and I think that it's worth asking how serious Deval is about this. So let's try to read the tea leaves.

Signs that he's not serious:
It's just a press release. Deval is notorious for issuing press releases, doing nothing, and then claiming credit for whatever the Legislature does in the subsequent time period. See pension reform -- the bill was written, debated, and passed by the Legislature, but no members of the General Court were present at Deval's press conference. Mind you, this is pretty much the governor's approach to his job om any issue, so this disengagement from all other policymakers may not be much of a telltale.
There's no meat on it. News agencies are forced to extrapolate from an astoundingly brief mention on the governor's site. Maybe it's a trial balloon...two days before a national holiday in the dead of summer. It certainly has even less thought than his press release on pension reform. The thirty schools subject to Deval's direct administration aren't even listed.
Even Deval knows it's nearly impossible to pull this off: The state is can barely afford to supply Local Aid to meet fundamental budgets for schools, but has the money to hire an army of consultants for thirty schools under Deval's direction? I have no idea from which line item this would come, unless Deval is hoping to run the schools with his people, and bill the towns and cities for the privilege. The Readiness Report stands as a monument to Deval's approach of speaking loudly and doing nothing on education. I'm not sure that right before an election, the governor will direct people to fire public servants based on rules created during Romney's administration.
He pulled it out of his a--: Despite claims to the contrary, pretty much nobody saw this coming -- the most common media description of reaction to this announcement is "stunned". It's devoid of details and full of double-talk (typical: "The school is still part of the district, the district just loses a measure of control’’). Again, vintage trial balloon stuff.

On the other hand, reasons to believe Deval is serious:
This is another opportunity for union-busting: One thing that anchors Deval Patrick's minimal interest in education is an implacable hostility to labor organization among education professionals. The Readiness Report mulls forcing teachers into a statewide labor union, forcing regionalization (which would weaken district unions), and opening the pathway to anti-union "Readiness Schools" based on the thinnest of justifications. So, the line that this would "allow the state to change local policies, suspend sections of teacher contracts" fits right into Deval's anti-union mentality.
More executive power: Like any executive, Deval enjoys accruing more power in the name of "efficiency" or "restructuring". This chance to step all over local democracy in return for gathering more power to the governor's office is the norm for our recent executives, and was another constant in Deval's Readiness Report.
Deval has to do something: The governor is taking on water rapidly, moving people from his office or the Obama team into his political operation. He can't stay ahead of uninspiring rivals such as Christy Mihos or Tim Cahill in the polls. Though Deval Patrick has quite an echo chamber online and in the Democratic Party, it isn't enough to make any strategist breathe easier. Marching consultants into schools makes for good tv and makes it look as if Deval is doing something about education.
Deval has full faith in the ivory tower: From Paul Reville to Dana Mohler-Faira, Deval Patrick's "advisors" on education are largely ivory tower folks unfamiliar with actual classrooms. He has shown uneven respect for classroom teachers and administrators, preserving an archaic rule that bans them from the state Board of Education. Meanwhile, his advisory team is heavy on teacher college folks who stand to gain the most from casting doubt on the abilities and qualifications of people who work in public education today. Insulated in private education and private business since he began his teenage years, Deval Patrick's understanding of public education relies a lot more on those around him than anyone else.

It's tough to tell what would happen. Springfield and Chelsea demonstrate that experts (aka people who know no more than you, but work elsewhere) can't do much beyond stabilize a situation, and wait to receive credit. There is a chorus who will embrace anything Deval Patrick proposes, even if they'd have fought tooth and nail against Mitt Romney attempting the same power grab, their numbers are lower.

In the end, though, the fact remains that the Patrick political operation is getting more and more desperate (see his undermining of Plymouth Rock Studios in Therese Murray's district) and a desperate politician often makes desperate moves.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Quick notes

  • Using stupid nicknames just makes the user look stupid. Anyone who calls her "Ka-Ching" Murray or him "Cadillac" Deval is demanding to be laughed at. Similarly, anyone who calls Tim Cahill not a Democrat just because of a difference of opinion is a risible, as well. Especially since our platform is now so meaningless that Cahill can say pretty much whatever he wants and still fit into our platform.
  • I do enjoy watching people try to pretend that Deval Patrick's loss on the tax battle is some sort of victory. He managed to get from a blowout to a tie, which is very admirable. Let's not exaggerate, however. The biggest impact on the Commonwealth is the higher sales tax, which Deval is preparing to take ownership of.
  • In any case, "tougher" ethics laws are very nice but beside the point. Unless you take the lawyers seriously, the issue with Wilkerson, Turner, et al isn't the ethics laws. These people knew the laws and felt they could break them with impunity. That is an issue as much about the people as the laws. Write whatever reforms you want, but the surest way to stop ethics violations is th elect ethical people. The almost-as-sure way is serious campaign finance reform, and I don't hear Deval saying anything about that.
  • I may well be tired of Michael Jackson's music by the end of July.
  • Hub Blog sadly lobbies to place Michael Jackson above Prince as a rock immortal. Hardly. Jackson sang, but sadly other people told him what to sing and how to sing it. Prince wrote, played the guitar, sang, orchestrated, produced, and in his spare time acted. They can match up well in terms of musical impact, but Prince is so, so much more talented. Jackson's dancing was largely derivative from James Brown, and Quincy Jones could make me sound like a genius on an album. Prince's music is thoroughly him, not his "team". No contest.
  • Marry in Mass comes away with a positive reaction to Menino from an interview. Of course he did well -- loathe as self-defined progressives hate to admit it, Menino is a great mayor. He's no visionary (of course, we're pretending the Big Dig wasn't a massive vision) but an effective manager who has managed to personally meet a self-reported 57% of the people of Boston. I'll keep saying it: the only two prominent Bay State politicians who love their current jobs are Tom Menino and Ted Kennedy.
  • In the musical 1776, the New York delegation relates how their state assembly sent them with no instructions because (paraphrasing) "it's a confused place where everybody shouts over each other and not very much gets done." At least on the Senate side, they've somehow managed to go downhill from there.

Good day for the Ayatollahs...

In a great little read about geopolitical history titled Who Hates Whom, the author Bob Harris repeatedly references major events that were underreported because they occurred around the time of the death of Anna Nicole Smith.

I frankly think that the Iranian Revolution may be headed in this direction. Of course, the brave protesters in Iran don't need any external help, and most of the dynamics of the situation in Iran point clearly to a split within the leadership of the country. However, I do believe that the finger has been light on the trigger because the world is watching Iran -- why else would they work so hard to shut down coverage?

Not that the traditional press has covered itself in glory in covering these Iranian protests (much more airtime spent on Jon&Kate), but now I expect they'll ignore Iran altogether. When faced with a choice between celebrity pablum or international reporting, I think it's easy to guess which the media will go for. I have no real problem with Michale Jackson -- I tend to like the music he recorded during his "African-American male" phase and credit him for basically introducing white America to James Brown's dance moves. However, I don't think the importance of his death, which will surely be of the scandalous and confusing variety, matches the importance of the changes now underway in Iran. I expect all manner of coverage about his "legacy", "controversies", and all that rot will dominate the media, giving the monsters who run I ran enough shadow time to send out the Basij to do some random thuggery.

Anyway, it's already happening...

Amusingly, a misspelled variant of his name (”Micheal Jackson”) is the fourth most popular search right now, beating out Iran.


PS: In other news, Deval Patrick has rushed out to claim credit for the Senate's ethics bill. Deval had nothing to do with it except a couple whining videos, but he's working overtime to take credit, and shockingly the usual crew over at BMG can't wait to agree. Apparently, this is all a big win for him (remember when everything was good for John McCain? Same thinking applies). Yawn.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Dean overshadows Obama on rights

Howard Dean is showing what he's made of -- again. He has apparently pulled out of an upcoming GLBT fundraiser for Obama. Dean wasn't just some name advertised as coming to the fundraiser, but was one of the four people listed as hosting it. He claims a scheduling issue. I will say that I wouldn't be surprised if Dean pulled out because of Obama's dismal record on GLBT rights, given the fact that Dean was the first statewide politician to risk his future on that issue by bringing the first civil unions into law.

A quick note. As I've said on BMG, Obama's hesitancy to risk his political capital by confirming the rights of an unpopular minority doesn't surprise me one bit. For all their frustrations, GLBT activists enjoy much more influence and acceptance in national politics than atheists. Enough influence that no prominent Democratic candidate is going to openly go fully against their priorities. However, Obama was willing to go after a more vulnerable group -- atheists. That's why I didn't vote for him. From public polling to national representation, atheists are far more vulnerable to attacks than are GLBT Americans. He already one-upped Bush's assault on religious freedom by opening the federal spigot to everything-but-atheism religious pressure groups.

No surprise then that after Obama learned he could go after atheists' rights with impunity, and as such has moved up the ladder to the next group. I'm sorry this was unexpected for anyone, but if you really want to know how serious a politician is about rights, don't ask him about LGBT issues, ask him/her about freedom of religion ones.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Sen. Murray's prescience

It was about a month ago that Senator Therese Murray stated during the budget fight that "Unfortunately [Deval Patrick] is kind of making himself irrelevant". Through accidental or purposeful incompetence, Deval's increasingly shrill corps of backers reported that Murray called him irrelevant. This remains, of course, an outright lie, but a useful one for that small, vocal crew.

Well, today we find that yes indeed, Deval Patrick is dedicated to making himself irrelevant. Patrick set out three conditions that would have to be met in order for him to save the Legislature the trouble of overriding his budget on the veto:

  • Pension reform (written by the Lege, as Deval did not more than issue a press release): done.
  • Transportation reform (minus the sinecure Deval attempted to procure for his friend Marian Walsh): done.
  • Ethics reform: in process.

People who've spent 30 or more months in elected politics would probably say that whipping out two major bills, and being deep into a third is a pretty good spring record. However, that's not good enough for Obama's crew of political advisors who have been loaned out once again to Deval Patrick, so in an email today he has announced his intention to veto the budget.

He got most of what he wanted already, and is in a fair shape to get the rest with a little patience. That is apparently not good enough for the governor.

In the world of governing, getting most of what you want even though you have a smaller power base than your partner is seen as a strong victory. It makes for a step toward the policy goals you want overall.

In the world of politics, getting most of what you want even though you have a smaller power base keeps you from using your partner as a foil for a campaign of indignation. It makes for a step backward toward your personal goals.

With this veto, Deval is making clear which goals he prioritizes. He is also making clear what position he must have in order to run against the Legislature next year.

That position? Irrelevant. When Deval gets his wish, I don't want to hear his backers whining about it.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Accidental Heroes

I've been quiet online because I'm hard at work offline these days, working in educational activism and my personal life. However, I was arrested by some photos of the street protests in Iran that I wanted to share...

I'm no expert heaven knows, but I do know enough to realize that the "President of Iran" has about as much impact on his country's policies as does the president of Germany (yes, they do have one). I've in the past referred to the post as that of a "glorified spokesman" as the real decisions are made by the unelected clerics that run Iran. But something funny happened...in the very real election for this very symbolic post, the rulers cheated, and the people of Iran have mobilized...






I don't know if the ayatollahs are hoping that things burn out, or that Moussavi can be co-opted, but Moussavi remains free and is protesting the vote loudly. And when you draw crowds like this asking about their vote, the end result is usually going to be either revolution, or a massacre. Here's hoping for revolution.

(source)

Monday, June 8, 2009

Progressive stance on education?

There isn't one. It's funny -- on most any issue, it's pretty clear what the progressive stance is, whether you agree with it or not. Energy, immigration, health care, diplomacy, taxation...there is quibble on the details, but not on overall picture.

Meanwhile you have self-identified progressives who love charter schools, and those who loathe them. Progressives who agree in the centrality of the MCAS, and those who want it turfed. Progressives are divided, and so are Democrats overall -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama diverged on the issue of education more than any other that I can remember.

I was amazed at the reactions of convention delegates when I approached them on education. So many, many different reactions, and frankly a lot of confusion about the current state of education. After most of the work was done, I amused myself by asking several people what the "progressive stance on education" is. The most common answer was an uncomfortable silence.

This tells me that either education issues thoroughly cross-cut progressive principles, or the progressive movement in Massachusetts has never had a serious conversation about education. My early thought is this:

Form a Progressive Working Group on Education. A coalition of activists, academics, educators, community leaders, and policymakers to have a serious conversation about this. Where consensus exists, this working group would try to implement that policy; where consensus doesn't (on MCAS and charter schools especially), have a serious conversation about how progressive principles are bound up in these issues.

I am considering trying to organize a kick-off conference for this in late September. Wonder if anyone would be interested...

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Doubt

The most poisonous thing in a democratic society may well be doubt. George W Bush's legacy was tarnished from the get-go by the narrow, questionable winning margin in Florida that provided his victory in the 2000 election. More recently, the thin spread of the 2008 Senatorial election in Minnesota is being used by a desperate Republican campaign to keep a legitimately elected senator from being seated. The Minnesota Republicans will clearly try to keep the doubt of Senator Franken's margin of victory alive with a view toward his re-election. The first move of losers in many democratic elections in developing countries is to throw doubt on the election apparatus. Losing sucks but at least you know where everyone stands and can move on, whereas doubt never goes away.

Doubt can be poisonous...and that's when they count the votes.

The most critical juncture of yesterday's Democratic State Convention was a vote on continued usage of the current platform (described to me by Deval's former campaign spokesperson as "a 45-page document nobody reads") in place of the abominable proposed replacement. About 1 out of 6 delegates signed this amendment, nevermind supported it. The whole morass was incredibly dense anyway; I had a 10-minute conversation with one of the smartest members of the Legislature to explain what was going on, and I'm not sure we even got to clarity. Anyway, as per normal procedure, a voice vote was taken on the amendment.

The Chair of the convention was John Walsh, a man who sought such a bland document from day one. He declared the motion denied and went on to other business immediately. Almost instantly, calls to question the vote arose and were ignored. In the hall, the sergeant-at-arms refused to give me the microphone to say "doubt the chair" -- the words Walsh himself had told us to use in order to question the a voice vote. Online, well, you can read for yourself.

Now, I think the amendment did fail. I do think that my side lost. from what I heard. But I'll never know. I'll never know because in the interest of saving the 20 seconds he'd have needed for delegates to stand or raise their hands, Walsh immediately went on to the next piece of business.

It's odd, because we dwelt for a couple of minutes on a non-binding resolution on slot machines later that day. Walsh wanted to get that non-binding resolution right, but was far less meticulous about the entire raison d'ĂȘtre of yesterday's confab. It's odd because a couple hours later on the fathers' rights amendment, Walsh told the hall how easily some very loud "no" voices can be overrepresented in a voice vote. He evidently knew how misleading voice votes can be, but did what he wanted anyhow.

Chairman Walsh ran a fairer convention that his predecessor ever did. But his decision to save 20 seconds by grace of his own impressions comes at the expense of the legitimacy of the vote. The pivotal decision of the 2009 convention is tarnished, and our platform for the next two years will be as well -- all because asking the delegates to stand would have been too much bother.

This is how I see it as somebody who felt that a fair count would have been against us. For the several hundred somebodies in that hall who feel differently -- it feels like it's 2005 all over again.

As for the future, it's easy to see talk about amending the rules to mandate standing or hadn counts of delegates from now on. However, given that the Sergeant-of-arms did not obey the rules for this current convention (on doubting the chair, or suspension to let David Plouffe speak), I don't see the point of writing new rules if they won't be kept in good faith anyway.

PS: I am not ignoring the hard work of the education team to gather 160 signatures on the MCAS amendment despite no organization or budget backing us. The work we did at the convention is just the start, and I'm hoping to keep up our momentum in making the Democratic Party seriously think about education despite itself...more on that later.